Forecasting inflation and tracking monetary policy in the euro area: does national information help?

The ECB objective is set in terms of year on year growth rate of the Euro area HICP. Nonetheless, a good deal of attention is given to national data by market analysts when they try to anticipate monetary policy moves. In this paper we use the Generalized Dynamic Factor model to develop a set of core inflation indicators that, combining national data with area wide information, allow us to answer two related questions. The first is whether country specific data actually bear any relevance for the future path of area wide price growth, over and above that already contained in area wide data. The second is whether in order to track ECB monetary policy decisions it is useful to take into account national information and not only area wide statistics. In both cases our findings point to the conclusion that, once area wide information is properly taken into account, there is little to be gained from considering national idiosyncratic developments. JEL Classification: C25, E37, E52dynamic factor model, forecasting, inflation, monetary policy, Taylor rule

Forecasting inflation and tracking monetary policy in the euro area: does national information help?

The ECB objective of price stability is given a quantitative content as a year-on-year growth rate in the euro area HICP close but below 2% over the medium term. While this objective is referred to area-wide price developments, in anticipating monetary policy moves, market analysts pay considerable attention to national data. In this paper we use the Generalized Dynamic Factor Model to derive a set of core inflation indicators that, combining national with area-wide data, allow us to answer two related questions: whether country-specific data are actually relevant to the future path of area-wide inflation once the information contained in area-wide data has been exploited, and whether it is useful, in order to track ECB monetary policy decisions, to factor in national and not only area-wide statistics. In both cases, our findings suggest that, when area-wide information is properly taken into account, there is little to be gained by considering national idiosyncratic developments.Forecast, Dynamic factor model, inflation, monetary policy

Can Stimulus Valence Modulate Task-Switching Ability? A Pilot Study on Primary School Children

Executive functions and emotional processes follow a time-dependent development that reflects the brain’s anatomo-functional maturation. Though the assessment of these cognitive functions is largely examined, in children the role of emotions in the mental set-shifting is still rarely investigated. The aim of this study was to assess how attention shifting can be modulated by the valence of emotional stimuli. To this end, sixty-two primary school children were tested with a new emotional task-switching paradigm obtained by manipulating the emotional valence and physical features of the stimulus pool. Thus, two tasks were alternatively presented: the Valence task and the Color task. Based on executive performance results, we found a lengthening of response times and a lower accuracy in the emotionally connoted task (Valence task), compared to the neutral task (Color task). The data demonstrate that the processing of emotional stimuli modulates the task-switching performance during development. These findings could help in the implementation of teaching strategies that can promote the development of executive functions and, therefore, functionally improve the overall academic performance of children. Finally, a better understanding of the developmental trajectories of executive functions can help neuropsychologists both in the early diagnosis and treatment of potential executive alterations

A Prospective, observational, Italian multi-center registry of self-aPposing® cOronary Stents in patients presenting with ST-segment Elevation Myocardial InfarcTION: The iPOSITION registry

Background: Primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI) in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) can be challenging for high thrombus burden and catecholamine-induced vasoconstriction. The Xposition-S stent was designed to prevent stent undersizing and minimize strut malapposition. We evaluated 1-year clinical outcomes of a nitinol, self-apposing®, sirolimus-eluting stent, pre-mounted on a novel balloon delivery system, in de novo lesions of patients presenting with STEMI undergoing pPCI. Methods: The iPOSITION is a prospective, multicenter, post-market, observational study. The primary endpoint, target lesion failure (TLF), was defined as the composite of cardiac death (CD), recurrent target vessel myocardial infarction (TV-MI), and clinically driven target lesion revascularization (TLR). Results: The study enrolled 247 STEMI patients from 7 Italian centers. Both device and procedural success occurred in 99.2% of patients, without any death, TV-MI, TLR, or stent thrombosis (ST) during the hospital stay and at 30-day follow-up. At 1 year, TLF occurred in 2.6%, CD occurred in 1.7%, TV-MI occurred in 0.4%, and TLR in 0.4% of patients. The 1-year ST rate was 0.4%. Conclusions: The use of an X-position S self-apposing® stent is feasible in STEMI pPCI, with excellent post-procedural results and 1-year outcomes

Telecardiology and Remote Monitoring of Implanted Electrical Devices: The Potential for Fresh Clinical Care Perspectives

Telecardiology may help confront the growing burden of monitoring the reliability of implantable defibrillators/pacemakers. Herein, we suggest that the evolving capabilities of implanted devices to monitor patients’ status (heart rhythm, fluid overload, right ventricular pressure, oximetry, etc.) may imply a shift from strictly device-centered follow-up to perspectives centered on the patient (and patient-device interactions). Such approaches could provide improvements in health care delivery and clinical outcomes, especially in the field of heart failure. Major professional, policy, and ethical issues will have to be overcome to enable real-world implementation. This challenge may be relevant for the evolution of our health care systems

A Systematic Review and International Web-Based Survey of Randomized Controlled Trials in the Perioperative and Critical Care Setting: Interventions Reducing Mortality

The authors aimed to identify interventions documented by randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that reduce mortality in adult critically ill and perioperative patients, followed by a survey of clinicians’ opinions and routine practices to understand the clinicians’ response to such evidence. The authors performed a comprehensive literature review to identify all topics reported to reduce mortality in perioperative and critical care settings according to at least 2 RCTs or to a multicenter RCT or to a single-center RCT plus guidelines. The authors generated position statements that were voted on online by physicians worldwide for agreement, use, and willingness to include in international guidelines. From 262 RCT manuscripts reporting mortality differences in the perioperative and critically ill settings, the authors selected 27 drugs, techniques, and strategies (66 RCTs, most frequently published by the New England Journal of Medicine [13 papers], Lancet [7], and Journal of the American Medical Association [5]) with an agreement ≥67% from over 250 physicians (46 countries). Noninvasive ventilation was the intervention supported by the largest number of RCTs (n = 13). The concordance between agreement and use (a positive answer both to “do you agree” and “do you use”) showed differences between Western and other countries and between anesthesiologists and intensive care unit physicians. The authors identified 27 clinical interventions with randomized evidence of survival benefit and strong clinician support in support of their potential life-saving properties in perioperative and critically ill patients with noninvasive ventilation having the highest level of support. However, clinician views appear affected by specialty and geographical location

Canagliflozin and Cardiovascular and Renal Outcomes in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and Chronic Kidney Disease in Primary and Secondary Cardiovascular Prevention Groups

Background: Canagliflozin reduces the risk of kidney failure in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and chronic kidney disease, but effects on specific cardiovascular outcomes are uncertain, as are effects in people without previous cardiovascular disease (primary prevention). Methods: In CREDENCE (Canagliflozin and Renal Events in Diabetes With Established Nephropathy Clinical Evaluation), 4401 participants with type 2 diabetes mellitus and chronic kidney disease were randomly assigned to canagliflozin or placebo on a background of optimized standard of care. Results: Primary prevention participants (n=2181, 49.6%) were younger (61 versus 65 years), were more often female (37% versus 31%), and had shorter duration of diabetes mellitus (15 years versus 16 years) compared with secondary prevention participants (n=2220, 50.4%). Canagliflozin reduced the risk of major cardiovascular events overall (hazard ratio [HR], 0.80 [95% CI, 0.67-0.95]; P=0.01), with consistent reductions in both the primary (HR, 0.68 [95% CI, 0.49-0.94]) and secondary (HR, 0.85 [95% CI, 0.69-1.06]) prevention groups (P for interaction=0.25). Effects were also similar for the components of the composite including cardiovascular death (HR, 0.78 [95% CI, 0.61-1.00]), nonfatal myocardial infarction (HR, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.59-1.10]), and nonfatal stroke (HR, 0.80 [95% CI, 0.56-1.15]). The risk of the primary composite renal outcome and the composite of cardiovascular death or hospitalization for heart failure were also consistently reduced in both the primary and secondary prevention groups (P for interaction >0.5 for each outcome). Conclusions: Canagliflozin significantly reduced major cardiovascular events and kidney failure in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and chronic kidney disease, including in participants who did not have previous cardiovascular disease

Canagliflozin and renal outcomes in type 2 diabetes and nephropathy

BACKGROUND Type 2 diabetes mellitus is the leading cause of kidney failure worldwide, but few effective long-term treatments are available. In cardiovascular trials of inhibitors of sodium–glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2), exploratory results have suggested that such drugs may improve renal outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes. METHODS In this double-blind, randomized trial, we assigned patients with type 2 diabetes and albuminuric chronic kidney disease to receive canagliflozin, an oral SGLT2 inhibitor, at a dose of 100 mg daily or placebo. All the patients had an estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) of 30 to <90 ml per minute per 1.73 m2 of body-surface area and albuminuria (ratio of albumin [mg] to creatinine [g], >300 to 5000) and were treated with renin–angiotensin system blockade. The primary outcome was a composite of end-stage kidney disease (dialysis, transplantation, or a sustained estimated GFR of <15 ml per minute per 1.73 m2), a doubling of the serum creatinine level, or death from renal or cardiovascular causes. Prespecified secondary outcomes were tested hierarchically. RESULTS The trial was stopped early after a planned interim analysis on the recommendation of the data and safety monitoring committee. At that time, 4401 patients had undergone randomization, with a median follow-up of 2.62 years. The relative risk of the primary outcome was 30% lower in the canagliflozin group than in the placebo group, with event rates of 43.2 and 61.2 per 1000 patient-years, respectively (hazard ratio, 0.70; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.59 to 0.82; P=0.00001). The relative risk of the renal-specific composite of end-stage kidney disease, a doubling of the creatinine level, or death from renal causes was lower by 34% (hazard ratio, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.53 to 0.81; P<0.001), and the relative risk of end-stage kidney disease was lower by 32% (hazard ratio, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.54 to 0.86; P=0.002). The canagliflozin group also had a lower risk of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke (hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.95; P=0.01) and hospitalization for heart failure (hazard ratio, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.47 to 0.80; P<0.001). There were no significant differences in rates of amputation or fracture. CONCLUSIONS In patients with type 2 diabetes and kidney disease, the risk of kidney failure and cardiovascular events was lower in the canagliflozin group than in the placebo group at a median follow-up of 2.62 years

The Changing Landscape for Stroke\ua0Prevention in AF: Findings From the GLORIA-AF Registry Phase 2

Background GLORIA-AF (Global Registry on Long-Term Oral Antithrombotic Treatment in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation) is a prospective, global registry program describing antithrombotic treatment patterns in patients with newly diagnosed nonvalvular atrial fibrillation at risk of stroke. Phase 2 began when dabigatran, the first non\u2013vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulant (NOAC), became available. Objectives This study sought to describe phase 2 baseline data and compare these with the pre-NOAC era collected during phase 1. Methods During phase 2, 15,641 consenting patients were enrolled (November 2011 to December 2014); 15,092 were eligible. This pre-specified cross-sectional analysis describes eligible patients\u2019 baseline characteristics. Atrial fibrillation disease characteristics, medical outcomes, and concomitant diseases and medications were collected. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. Results Of the total patients, 45.5% were female; median age was 71 (interquartile range: 64, 78) years. Patients were from Europe (47.1%), North America (22.5%), Asia (20.3%), Latin America (6.0%), and the Middle East/Africa (4.0%). Most had high stroke risk (CHA2DS2-VASc [Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age  6575 years, Diabetes mellitus, previous Stroke, Vascular disease, Age 65 to 74 years, Sex category] score  652; 86.1%); 13.9% had moderate risk (CHA2DS2-VASc = 1). Overall, 79.9% received oral anticoagulants, of whom 47.6% received NOAC and 32.3% vitamin K antagonists (VKA); 12.1% received antiplatelet agents; 7.8% received no antithrombotic treatment. For comparison, the proportion of phase 1 patients (of N = 1,063 all eligible) prescribed VKA was 32.8%, acetylsalicylic acid 41.7%, and no therapy 20.2%. In Europe in phase 2, treatment with NOAC was more common than VKA (52.3% and 37.8%, respectively); 6.0% of patients received antiplatelet treatment; and 3.8% received no antithrombotic treatment. In North America, 52.1%, 26.2%, and 14.0% of patients received NOAC, VKA, and antiplatelet drugs, respectively; 7.5% received no antithrombotic treatment. NOAC use was less common in Asia (27.7%), where 27.5% of patients received VKA, 25.0% antiplatelet drugs, and 19.8% no antithrombotic treatment. Conclusions The baseline data from GLORIA-AF phase 2 demonstrate that in newly diagnosed nonvalvular atrial fibrillation patients, NOAC have been highly adopted into practice, becoming more frequently prescribed than VKA in Europe and North America. Worldwide, however, a large proportion of patients remain undertreated, particularly in Asia and North America. (Global Registry on Long-Term Oral Antithrombotic Treatment in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation [GLORIA-AF]; NCT01468701